Insights, 11/9/19

“Democrats in Virginia won control of the state legislature in Tuesday’s elections, opening the door for lawmakers there to pass new gun-control laws, a higher minimum wage, and a host of other measures Republicans have long opposed. Wresting the House of Delegates and Senate from the GOP gives Democrats across-the-board political control in Richmond for the first time in 26 years. ..Some of the seats Democrats picked up were in House districts that were redrawn after a 2018 court ruling found boundaries in many districts had been racially gerrymandered.” Scott Calvert and Jon Kamp, The Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“Protecting elections from hacking threats means a lot more than protecting election systems from being hacked. Malicious hackers can find plenty of other ways to interfere with elections - notably by discouraging voting through election-day attacks on municipal systems. Security firm Cybereason has been exploring that kind of election tampering in a series of tabletop simulations over the last year... A hacker tampering with traffic lights is just one way someone could sway an election by influencing which voters can show up, all without touching the systems most associated with voting. With so much focus on voting machines, we may be missing the threat of these kinds of attacks.” Joe Uchill, Axios, MORE

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“Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin on Wednesday filed a formal request for a recanvass of the vote in his bid for re-election, a day after he appeared to come up roughly 5,150 votes short. NBC News declared his Democratic opponent, Andy Beshear, the state attorney general, the apparent winner of the race... Bevin campaign officials have not provided any specifics on the ‘irregularities’ they claim may have affected the election. Kentucky Republicans captured every other statewide race on the ballot Tuesday. A recanvass of the vote is a count by each county clerk to ensure that the vote totals they submitted to the State Board of Elections are accurate. Under Kentucky law, candidates can request a recount, but they have to pay for it.” Lauren Egan, NBC News, MORE

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“In a party and a country that is only becoming more diverse, the ability to build multi-racial, multi-ethnic coalitions is not a nice-to-have - it’s a job requirement. I’m the only person in this race who has demonstrated time and time again, with only my own name on the ballot, an ability to turn out the vote and win in a heavily Black electorate...What we need to understand right now as a party is that every successful struggle for justice in America - not to mention every winning Democratic coalition in modern times - has included the active participation and engagement of Black people. In particular, they have included Black women, who in recent elections have been engaged more and vote at higher rates than the national average. That’s how Democrats won in 2008 and 2012 and 2018. And that’s how we win next year.” Senator Cory Booker [TCG Past Speaker]. Essence, MORE

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“Somewhere around Halloween, the U.S. economy started to look a bit less scary. Top U.S. and Chinese officials are talking about a trade war truce. Many economic indicators, especially jobs and consumer spending, still look solid, if not strong. The stock market is back at record highs, and many corporate earnings are coming in better than expected. Even the bond market, which was flashing red at the end of the summer when the yield curve inverted, now looks a milder yellow. As recently as August, so.me models predicted a fifty-fifty chance of a U.S. recession in the next year. Now, many top Wall Street firms are telling clients the risk of a recession in the next year is modest. Goldman Sachs puts the risk level at 24 percent. Barclays says less than 10 percent. Morgan Stanley says “around 20” percent. The message from the markets, many experts, the latest economic data and top Federal Reserve officials is that recession risk has subsided.” Heather Long, The Washington Post, MORE

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“In a town where polarization and partisanship seem to be the rule, there is one proposition to which politicians both right and left seem able to agree: it is time to end the ‘endless wars.’ It’s a notion that is difficult to resist — who exactly is for ‘endless war,’ after all? — and rooted in deep public frustration with the costly but seemingly fruitless interventions of the post-9/11 era. But as a guide to policymaking, opposition to ‘forever wars’ is not useful. Opposition to “endless wars” reflects skepticism regarding the deployment of U.S. military forces overseas, and of intervention as a policy tool. According to the Defense Department, there are about 200,000 U.S. service members deployed overseas in nearly 170 different countries or territories — a remarkable number given that there are just 195 countries in the world. Yet the differences among the United States’ various military missions are stark, and each deserves independent scrutiny rather than blanket opposition or, for that matter, knee-jerk support. It should be obvious that the 55,000 U.S. troops in Japan are engaged in different work than our 5,200 or so service members in Iraq. Less well-recognized, however, is how much even one combat mission in the Middle East differs from another.” Michael Singh, The Washington Post, MORE

Insights, 11/1/19

“Twitter on Wednesday said it would ban all advertisements about political candidates, elections and hot-button policy issues such as abortion and immigration, a significant shift that comes in response to growing concerns that politicians are seizing on the vast reach of social media to deceive voters ahead of the 2020 election. The ban marks a break with Twitter’s social media peers, Facebook and Google-owned YouTube, which have defended their policies on political ads in recent weeks. The political ad ban might not have much impact on widely followed accounts, including President Trump’s, whose tweets already reach more than 66 million users each day. Some critics, including Democrats, have urged Twitter to block or remove the commander in chief’s tweets, arguing that his comments are incendiary or incorrect. Twitter has declined to take action, beyond stressing some narrow cases in which it would limit the reach of tweets from a head of state.” Tony Romm and Isaac Stanley-Becker, The Washington Post, MORE

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“There was good news and bad news in the U.S. third-quarter GDP report released Wednesday... GDP growth slowed less than expected, dipping to 1.9%, which is above expectations of 1.6% growth. It's also well above the growth seen in developed market peers like the eurozone and Japan, which have seen growth this year between 0% and 1%, or worse... Business investment was negative for the second consecutive quarter, falling 3%, which follows a 1% decline in the previous quarter. It's a dramatic turnaround from increases of 4.4% and 4.8% in the two preceding quarters, the latest sign that President Trump's trade war is showing up in more U.S. economic data.” - Dion Rabouin, Axios, MORE

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“The Fed's rate-cutting cycle went from pause to "pause lite," Fed chair Jerome Powell almost rocked the boat during the FOMC's October press conference on Wednesday after announcing a third straight cut to U.S. interest rates. Powell initially said it would take a “material reassessment” in the outlook for the Fed to change its view that no further rate cuts were needed. But minutes later he reversed course, saying that holding rates at their current levels would be appropriate as long as the outlook stayed within the Fed’s expectations...Powell's adjustment to "pause lite" reversed the decline in U.S. equities and the gains in U.S. Treasury yields” -Dion Rabouin, Axios, MORE

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“Wildfires and lack of affordable housing - these are the two of the most visible and urgent crises facing California, raising the question of whether the country’s dreamiest, most optimistic state is fast becoming unlivable. Climate change is turning it into a tinderbox; the soaring cost of living is forcing even wealthy families into financial precarity. And, in some ways, the two crises are one: The housing crunch in urban centers has pushed construction to cheaper, more peripheral areas, where wildfire risk is greater. California’s housing crisis has exacerbated its wildfire crisis, and its wildfire crisis has exacerbated its housing crisis. That vicious cycle is nowhere near ending.” Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic, MORE

Insights, 10/25/19

“Justice Dept. is said to open criminal inquiry into its own Russia investigation. The move is likely to open the attorney general to accusations that he is trying to deliver a political victory for President Trump.” Katie Benner and Adam Goldman, New York Times MORE

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"Germany's Defense Minister ... advocated for the establishment of an internationally controlled security zone in Syria in cooperation with European partners, as well as Turkey and Russia. The proposal has the potential to lead to German and European military deployment to the region, marking an escalation of involvement in the Syrian conflict as it enters its ninth year.  "This security zone would seek to resume the fight against terror and against the 'Islamic State,' which has currently come to a standstill,"" Austin Davis, Deutsche Welle. MORE

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“Mario Draghi … will hand over control of the central bank to former IMF leader Christine Lagarde who, with no central baking experience, will inherit not just a group of weakening economies, but a squabbling 25-member governing council described by the Wall Street Journal as "warring factions."  The committee has split largely based on Draghi's reported 11th-hour decision last month to cut rates and restart the bond purchases it had concluded in December...What's happening: The manufacturing sector in the euro area shrank for the ninth consecutive month, data showed Thursday, and remains on the brink of an outright contraction. ...In addition to a looming recession, a divided governing council and a rising wave of opposition toward European unity, the ECB looks to be out of bullets, as even interest rates well below 0 and trillions in bond purchases have failed to accomplish its stated goals."- Dion Rabouin, Axios Markets. MORE

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“Elizabeth Warren wants to remake American capitalism. She has an admirably detailed plan to transform a system she believes is corrupt and fails ordinary people. Plenty of her ideas are good. She is right to try to limit giant firms’ efforts to influence politics and gobble up rivals. But at its heart, her plan reveals a systematic reliance on regulation and protectionism. As it stands, it is not the answer to America’s problems.’”-Economist MORE

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“EU ambassadors have agreed to delay Brexit, but will not make a decision on a new deadline date until next week. Boris Johnson said he was waiting for the EU to decide "what they want to do".  British MPs are expected on Monday to consider the prime minister's call for an early general election. Mr Johnson says he wants to hold one on 12 December, if the EU offers a Brexit delay until 31 January.” - BBC News, MORE

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“Indonesian investigators blamed design flaws in the 737 MAX jet, ineffective U.S. regulators and pilot error for the Lion Air crash that left hundreds dead.”-Harry Suhartono, Fathiya Dahrul, and Alan Levin. Bloomberg MORE

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“The 39 people found dead in a refrigerated trailer in Essex were Chinese nationals--eight women and 31 men…A UK government report on modern slavery published one year ago found that China was the third most common foreign country of origin for victims of human trafficking.” Celia Hatton, BBC News MORE

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“U.S. immigration authorities separated more than 1,500 children from their parents at the Mexico border early in the Trump administration, the American Civil Liberties Union said Thursday, bringing the total number of children separated since July 2017 to more than 5,400...Children from that period can be difficult to find because the government had inadequate tracking systems.” -Elliot Spagat, Associated Press U.S. News & World Report, MORE

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“A raging wildfire that forced massive evacuations in Northern California scorched thousands of acres in hours -- and is expected to keep growing.The Kincade Fire ignited Wednesday night in Sonoma County, and burned 16,000 acres by Thursday night.”-Dakin Andone, Faith Karimi, and Joe Sutton, CNN News, MORE

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“The large and demanding job of Secretary of Homeland Security warrants a qualified and experienced person, carefully selected by the president with the advice and consent of the Senate; the current threat picture demands it….The possibility that such an individual’s views and perspectives do not align perfectly with the president’s is a virtue in a Cabinet, not a vice….A president who leaves the job vacant for too long is neglecting his own duty to defend the homeland and keep the American people safe.”-Former Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Charles Johnson, [PAST TCG SPEAKER] Washington Post, MORE

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“For Iran’s leaders, Syria has become the most important spot in their quest to expand their influence in the Middle East, and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is their most important ally in that quest. The departure of American forces shrinks America’s role and reduces an impediment to both Iranian influence and Mr. Assad’s continuation in power. ‘Iran wants to consolidate Assad’s rule in Syria, reduce America’s presence in the Middle East, and thwart Kurdish autonomy,’ says Karim Sadjadpour [PAST TCG SPEAKER], an Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for Int’l Peace . ‘Trump’s decision checked all three of those boxes, and Iran didn’t have to offer anything in return.’”-Gerald F. Seib [ PAST TCG SPEAKER], The Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“Elijah E. Cummings leaves behind an invaluable legacy as a Congressman for Baltimore for more than two decades and as a champion for social justice. His passing is a call to cherish the many gifts he imparted on all those fortunate to know him, but it’s also a reminder of a painful reality facing people of color: shorter life expectancy. Congressman Cummings died at the age of 68.”-Leana S. Wen, The Washington Post, MORE

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“Trump’s Syria actions are the result of a knowledge-free foreign policy. Has there ever been a foreign policy move that has produced more crises more quickly? ...Trump’s moves in Syria are part of a Middle Eastern policy that, as Martin Indyk [PAST TCG SPEAKER] explains in Foreign Affairs, is in total disarray. Indyk, who has held virtually every senior Middle East job in the U.S. government, describes how, in case after case, the Trump administration dispensed with regional experts, reversed long-standing policy and assumed that its knowledge-free approach would yield innovative, new results. “In fact,” Indyk says, the administration “understands so little about how the Middle East actually works that its bungling efforts have been a failure across the board.”- Fareed Zakaria, [Past TCG Speaker] Washington Post  MORE

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“The religious and cultural divide between Democratic and Republican voters is widening, pointing toward even greater partisan polarization and social tension as the nation careens into a possible impeachment vote against President Donald Trump and potential record turnout in the 2020 presidential election. An extensive national study released Monday by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute showed that voters in each party now hold antithetical views not only on issues that dominate the immediate political debate -- such as health care and impeachment -- but also on deeper changes in the nation's demography, culture, race relations and gender roles, according to detailed results the institute provided to CNN.”-Ron Brownstein  [PAST TCG SPEAKER], CNN, MORE

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“The country has become so polarized that swing voters barely exist anymore. Elections are now decided by which side better manages to mobilize its base. So Democrats need to stop worrying about winning over moderates—and confidently move to the left... As I’ve argued in the past, this makes it possible for Democratic presidential candidates to develop an ambitious agenda on issues from health care to gun control without jeopardizing their chances of ousting Donald Trump.”-Yascha Mounk [PAST TCG SPEAKER], The Atlantic, MORE

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“Fortunately, a new European Union directive protects the whistle-blowers - government and private-sector employees alike - who expose elite self-dealing that undermines the public interest. Often, there are witnesses to corruption, and democracy and the rule of law depend on their speaking up. Whistle-blowers are the lifeblood of free societies. The global proliferation of whistle-blower-protection laws... is imperative when corruption networks sprawl across national borders.”-Allison Stanger [Upcoming TCG Speaker], The Atlantic, MORE

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”The America that they {service men and women] believed in was under attack, not from without, but from within...If our promises are meaningless, how will our allies ever trust us? If we can’t have faith in our nation’s principles, why would the men and women of this nation join the military? And if they don’t join, who will protect us? If we are not the champions of the good and the right, then who will follow us? And if no one follows us — where will the world end up?” - William McRaven, The New York Times, MORE

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“American patriotism, like America itself, is a continuing experiment in the power of ideas to bring human beings together. Other nations form their identities around shared ethnic origins or ancestral experiences—things that are themselves often imaginary, based more on myth than history. But the word “fatherland,” so powerful in other languages, is alien to American usage, because our forefathers all came from different lands. Instead, the classic formulas of American patriotism are about moral and political ideas: “all men are created equal”; “government of the people, by the people, for the people”; “liberty’”.  Political division, bitter as it could become, has been constrained by both parties’ allegiance to the American vocabulary of liberty and self-determination. If today’s politics seems more dangerous—more reminiscent of the 1850s, the most polarized period in American history—it is partly because this kind of principled patriotism is losing its value as a shared moral vocabulary.” - Adam Kirsch, Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“Brittany Kaiser [PAST TCG SPEAKER],former director at Cambridge Analytica-[and her book], Targeted, offers what other Cambridge Analytica look-backs don’t - a more in-the-room account of what exactly, she alleges, was in the Powerpoint pitch….Until we break down specifically how and why certain imagery appeals to us, we won’t ever be prepared to adequately handle weaponized memory already in use.”-Andrew Limbong, NPR, MORE

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“On Monday, Donald Trump announced on Twitter that Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette will be nominated to replace current Secretary Rick Perry, who will depart by the end of the year. As a former auto-industry lobbyist, Brouillette won’t be lonely in Trump’s Cabinet, where he joins former coal lobbyist and current EPA head Andrew Wheeler; former oil and gas lobbyist Interior secretary David Bernhardtl; former Raytheon lobbyist and current Defense secretary Mark Esper; and former Goldman Sachs lobbyist and current Labor secretary Eugene Scalia."-Matt Stieh,New York Magazine, MORE

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“Great leaders, to Trump, aren’t measured by what they believe: they are great because they win and are adored. His portrayal of Lincoln’s greatness is unmoored from anything that Lincoln thought of as politics or political leadership, chiefly, the self-discipline, patience, and probity required to bring about the Emancipation Proclamation, the Thirteenth Amendment, and the Union victory—events that remade the nation"-Sidney Blumenthal [PAST TCG SPEAKER], New Yorker Magazine MORE

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“The U.N. refugee agency is investigating why Malta last week allegedly asked the Libyan coast guard to intercept a migrant boat in a zone of the Mediterranean under Maltese responsibility, in possible violation of maritime law, a U.N. official said Tuesday.  According to the UNHCR there are currently 650,000 migrants in Libya  “The problem is that the migrants were disembarked in Libya. That’s certainly a violation of maritime laws ... It’s clear that Libya isn’t a safe port,”…..UNHCR’s Cochetel said it was not the first time Malta was accused of delegating a rescue to the Libyan coast guard"-Renata Brito and Giado Zampano, Associated Press, MORE

Insights, 10/16

“SENATE AND HOUSE leadership think the president is making a massive strategic error in Syria, reinvigorating ISIS, empowering Russia and sowing chaos in an unsteady region. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: "It's not our problem….GRAHAM just now reacting to this: 'If the President did say that Turkey's invasion is no concern to us I find that to be an outstanding—an astonishing statement which I completely and totally reject.'" - By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross, Politico, MORE

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"U.S. carried out secret cyber strike on Iran in wake of Saudi oil attack: officials," by Reuters' Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart: "The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the operation took place in late September and took aim at Tehran's ability to spread 'propaganda.' One of the officials said the strike affected physical hardware, but did not provide further details. ..” - By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman,Eli Okun and Garrett Ross, Politico, MORE

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“Nearly all the key U.S.-Russian arms control and confidence-building provisions of the Cold War era are dead or on life support, with little effort underway to update or replace them. Meanwhile, U.S. officials from both parties are focused not on how we might avoid nuclear catastrophe but on showing how tough they can look against a revanchist Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin. Summit meetings between White House and Kremlin leaders, once viewed as opportunities for peace, are now seen as dangerous temptations to indulge in Munich-style appeasement, the cardinal sin of statecraft”- George Beebe, Politico. MORE

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“North Korea’s lead negotiator has said that working-level nuclear talks in Sweden between officials from Pyongyang and Washington have broken off, dashing prospects for an end to months of stalemate.The North’s chief nuclear negotiator, Kim Myong-gil, who spent much of Saturday in Stockholm talks with an American delegation, cast the blame on what he portrayed as US inflexibility, saying the other side’s negotiators would not ‘give up their old viewpoint and attitude’.” - The Guardian, MORE

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“The economic sectors that are hurting are those most exposed to the trade winds. That’s largely because China crafted its retaliation for Trump’s tariffs to hurt his political supporters in the industrial Midwest and the farm belt. Over the past year, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Indiana, Minnesota and New Hampshire each have shed thousands of factory jobs. The president won the first three states in 2016 and hopes to capture the last two in next year’s election, the type of domestic politics that Chinese leaders don’t face.”- David J. Lynch, Washington Post. MORE

Insights, 10/10/19

“Alabama’s capital, a city once known as the cradle of the Confederacy and later the birthplace of the civil rights movement, elected its first African American mayor Tuesday.Probate Judge Steven Reed, 45, clasped the history-making victory to be elected the next mayor of Montgomery after defeating businessman David Woods by a decisive margin. Reed won about 67% of the vote in Tuesday’s mayoral runoff, according to unofficial returns.” - Associated Press, Time. MORE

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“Turkey’s government launched a long-expected offensive into northeastern Syria on Wednesday, with airstrikes and shelling targeting Syrian Kurdish fighters who have played a central role in aiding the U.S.-led battle against the Islamic State militant group. The operation — with some ground forces crossing the border later — came just days after President Trump’s startling announcement that the United States would not stand in Turkey’s way, bringing sharp rebukes from even the president’s Republican allies.” - Kareem Fahim, Sarah Dadouch and Asser Khattab, The Washington Post MORE

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“Former vice president Joe Biden made his most direct call for President Trump’s impeachment Wednesday hours after Trump said the Democratic-led inquiry should be terminated “for the good of the Country,” claiming it was tainted with political bias. “President Trump has indicted himself by obstructing justice, refusing to comply with a congressional inquiry … he’s already convicted himself,” Biden, who is running for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, said during a fiery address in New Hampshire.” -By Felicia Sonmez ,Colby Itkowitz and John Wagner, The Wasington Post, MORE

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“President Trump urged Turkey on Wednesday to protect civilians and safeguard Islamic State prisons as it launched a military operation in northern Syria against Syrian Kurdish forces, saying the United States would hold its NATO ally responsible for the consequences of its decision to attack a key U.S. counterterrorism partner...the president said in a statement that Turkey had promised to avert a humanitarian crisis and ensure its operation did not allow the Islamic State to regain strength.” - By Karen DeYoung, Missy Ryan and Dan Lamothe, The Washington Post, MORE

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“That followed days of intense criticism accusing Silver of trying to appease one of the world’s most autocratic governments after a Houston Rockets executive tweeted support for pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. “We will protect our employees’ freedom of speech,” Silver said. But the league’s Chinese campaign has been overshadowed by the single pro-Hong Kong tweet on Friday night from Daryl Morey, the general manager of the Rockets, who shared an image that contained the words “Fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong.” The phrase is a popular slogan at the protests in Hong Kong that have raged for months.”- Sopan Deb, New York Times. MORE

Insights, 9/30/19

Today’s insights examine inequality in America, turnover at the IMF and the State Department, and China’s crackdown on pro-democracy protests. Learn more about the “powder keg” of growing income inequality in America, the fallout of the Ukraine investigation and President Trump’s recall of U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Masha Yovanovitch and the appointment of Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva as the IMF’s new managing director, replacing Christine Lagarde. Finally, as The People’s Republic of China prepares to celebrate their 70th “National Day” on October 1st, how will Beijing manage commemorations in Hong Kong as pro-democracy protests endure?

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“Income inequality "is the biggest powder keg in America right now". The gap between those at the top and everyone else in the U.S. grew last year to its highest level in more than 50 years, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures released Thursday...The issue is beginning to generate greater concern among Americans, data shows, and could become a more prominent issue for politicians as well as companies. "The gap between the haves and have-nots is the biggest powder keg in America right now and that’s saying something," John Dick, founder and CEO of CivicScience, said in a note. "Even as consumer confidence remains high, concerns over income inequality reached the highest point we’ve seen this month. But that’s a little misleading because the term 'income inequality' evokes a tribal response," Dick said.” - Dion Rabouin, Axios, MORE

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“The United States had a very fine professional career ambassador, Ambassador Masha Yovanovitch in Kyiv. She was pushed out of office by the president and by Rudy Giuliani apparently because she was trying to fight corruption in Ukraine, but she also wasn't going along with what Rudy Giuliani was up to in his conversations with the Ukrainian government….in this call that the president had with President Zelenskiy [he] threw Ambassador Yovanovitch under the bus. He made very derogatory comments about her...I can't remember any American president in the past torching their own ambassador in a phone call with a foreign leader. It's one thing to have disagreements inside a government, but the president is supposed to be defending our career civil servants, and he didn't do that in this case.” - Ambassador Nicholas Burns [TCG Past Speaker], NPR, MORE

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“The announcement Wednesday of Kristalina Georgieva as IMF managing director cements a clear changing of the guard at the world's most important economic institutions. Fed chair Jerome Powell is not a lifelong central banker or even a PhD economist. He's a lawyer and former private equity manager, who became the first Fed chair without an economics pedigree since the disastrous William Miller whose tenure from 1979–1981 led to U.S. stagflation. Christine Lagarde, the incoming ECB president, is also a lawyer by training and became managing director of the IMF after a career in politics with no real background in central banking. David Malpass, president of the World Bank, is best known for his time in the Reagan administration and at Bear Sterns where months before the financial crisis he wrote an op-ed titled, "Don't Panic About the Credit Market."” - Dion Rabouin, Axios, MORE

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“The area around Tiananmen Square will be on lockdown, and residents who live on nearby streets have been told to remain at home. Passenger trains will undergo security checks and all unauthorized flying objects...have been banned...Internet access in the city has been throttled and Weibo, the popular microblogging site, said it would delete content that “distorts” or “insults” Chinese history...National Day is a holiday in Hong Kong too...Pro-democracy protests have been a mainstay of National Day commemorations ever since the former British colony returned to Chinese control in 1997. But this year is different...In July, an estimated 2 million people marched against a proposed bill that would have allowed the people in Hong Kong to be extradited to the mainland to face trial. The city’s embattled chief executive, Carrie Lam, withdrew the bill last month after weeks of protests. But the protesters’ demands have expanded to include universal suffrage and an investigation into the police’s use of force.” - Russell Goldman, New York Times, MORE

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Insights, 9/19/19

Today’s insights look nationally and internationally at war, activism, and economy. Learn more about what the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia spells for US foreign policy in the region, how climate activist Greta Thunberg handled her testimony in Congress, the chilling recent efforts by Sandy Hook Promise to fight against gun violence in schools, and how the US-China trade war is impacting the global economy:

Pictured in header: Greta Thunberg testifying alongside TCG Changemaker Scholarship for Climate Change Action, Jamie Margolin.

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“The missiles that struck last weekend in Saudi Arabia did not just destroy oil tanks. They also dealt the final blow to a doctrine that has been fading for years: the belief that the United States maintains a security umbrella able to protect the oil-rich Persian Gulf states from their enemies — and, especially, from Iran...the current Gulf crisis is not just about this administration and the pitfalls of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. The United States has been disengaging from the Middle East since the catastrophe of the 2003 Iraq invasion. Now that shale has made America so much less dependent on the Middle East’s oil, it is hard to imagine any American president risking significant blood and treasure to defend Saudi Arabia.” - Robert F. Worth, New York Times, MORE

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“Thunberg, who has made a habit of reprimanding adults in power on their climate complacency, has learned that the frustration, impatience, and fear of young people for the catastrophic future is a powerful tool. And she used it on Democratic members of the Senate Climate Change Task Force... “We don’t want to become politicians, we don’t want to run for office,” she said. “We want you to unite behind the science. I’m sorry, I know you’re probably trying very hard, and this is not personally to any one of you but generally to everyone. I know you’re trying, but just not hard enough.” - Ella Nilsen, Vox, MORE

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“Familiar back-to-school supplies...are recast as emergency survival tools in a devastating new public service announcement from the Sandy Hook Promise, an anti-violence nonprofit founded by the parents of victims of the Sandy Hook shootings in 2012...A boy marveling over his new sneakers is running down the hallway not to dodge a hall monitor but a gunman. The ad reflects a grim reality for the network of survivors from the more than 228,000 students who have experienced a school shooting since the massacre at Columbine High School in 1999...Sandy Hook Promise co-founder Nicole Hockley [TCG American Spirit Awardee & Past Speaker], who’s 6-year-old son Dylan was killed in the Sandy Hook shooting, wants people to understand how they can recognize troubling behavior and intervene to stop school shootings before they happen...“I will never put a bulletproof backpack on my kid,” Hockley said...“I think it sends totally the wrong message: He’s not a soldier going off to war; he’s a boy going off to math class.” - Kim Bellware, Washington Post, MORE

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“The global economy is set to grow at the slowest pace since the financial crisis, with business investment and trade hampered by an escalating dispute between the U.S. and China that could inflict even more damage over coming years, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday...it now expects world output of goods and services to increase by 2.9% this year, the smallest annual rise since 2009 when the global economy was pushed into a recession by the near-collapse of the financial system. It expects growth to remain low in 2020 and possibly beyond if the trade conflict between the U.S. and China spills over into other aspects of their economic relationship.” - Paul Hannon, Wall Street Journal, MORE

Insights, 9/13/19

In this edition of insights, we cover the most recent Democratic Debate, the exit of John Bolton, and the current state of the Italian government. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“Most of the candidates said they were eager for a detailed discussion. Yet none were ready to embrace the challenge entirely. Senator Elizabeth Warren...tried to avoid directly answering a question about whether middle-class taxes would go up under Medicare for All—even though Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, whose plan she’s endorsed, acknowledges they would...The moderators wanted to know, what is Joe Biden’s plan to counter China’s economic rise if not the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal he once helped sell but now opposes? How would Sanders get any of his major proposals through the Senate when he still supports keeping the filibuster in place? How would...Beto O’Rourke...build support in Congress for mandatory assault-rifle buybacks? The answers largely remain mysteries. Eventually the how can catch up to politicians.” - Edward-Isaac Dovere, The Atlantic, [MORE]

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“Last month, Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy’s right-wing populist Lega party, attempted a Machiavellian power move...But whether the new government halts the rise of right-wing populism more than temporarily will depend on its ability to improve Italy’s standard of living and reverse some negative trends that have made the country one of the weaker links in the European Union. To fix all this would be a tall order for any government, let alone one composed of two parties—each riven by serious internal divisions—that were bitter rivals until a few weeks ago...if Italy does not begin to address the problems that paved the way for Salvini’s ascendancy, the country will have him to contend with whenever elections are held next.” - Alexander Stille, Foreign Affairs, [MORE]

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“Donald Trump’s foreign policy has seesawed between threats to bomb enemies and moon-shot diplomacy. The president has flirted with nuclear war with North Korea, only to become the first sitting president to step onto its soil. He has strangled Iran’s economy and ordered bombers into the air, then offered talks. A troop surge in Afghanistan gave way to a proposed summit with the Taliban. John Bolton’s appointment as national security adviser in April 2018 seemed to tilt the scales towards the hawks. His acrimonious departure on September 10th—fired by presidential tweet—suggests that Mr. Trump is now in a dealmaking mood.” - The Economist, [MORE]

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 9/9/2019

In this edition of insights, we take a look at the Democratic Presidential Candidate Elizabeth Warren, the collapse of the meeting with the Taliban the death of Robert Mugabe and the current state of Moscow. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“The open secret of Ms. Warren’s campaign is that her big-money fund-raising through 2018 helped lay the foundation for her anti-big-money run for the presidency. Last winter and spring, she transferred $10.4 million in leftover funds from her 2018 Senate campaign to underwrite her 2020 run, a portion of which was raised from the same donor class she is now running against...her disavowal of closed-door events with the donor class has become an inextricable part of the DNA of her candidacy...It is the reason...she has the time to dedicate to hourslong selfie lines, to expand the map of states she can visit, and to call up small donors at random to thank them for giving, rather than pleading for more $2,800 donations from the well-to-do.” - Shane Goldmacher, New York Times, MORE 

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“Mr. Trump came up with an even more remarkable idea — he would not only bring the Taliban to Washington, but to Camp David, the crown jewel of the American presidency...What would have been one of the biggest headline-grabbing moments of his tenure was put together on the spur of the moment and then canceled on the spur of the moment. The usual National Security Council process was dispensed with; only a small circle of advisers was even clued in. And even after it fell apart, Mr. Trump took it upon himself to disclose the secret machinations in a string of Saturday night Twitter messages that surprised not only many national security officials across the government but even some of the few who were part of the deliberations.” - Peter Baker, Mujib Mashal,Michael Crowley, New York Times, MORE 

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“Robert Mugabe’s career can be divided into three main parts. First, as an extraordinarily skillful leader who managed to dominate a fractious nationalist movement opposed to the white-supremacist rule of Rhodesia’s Ian Smith. Second, as a legitimate if increasingly flawed ruler from independence in 1980 until his humiliating defeat in a constitutional referendum in 2000. And third, as a bloodstained dictator who ruled by rigging elections and torturing his opponents until his ousting...There followed a brief coda as a deposed, and dying, tyrant...Some in Zimbabwe will always admire him for his brilliance in liberating them in the 1970s from a regime that was undeniably racist...But the fundamental truth was that Robert Mugabe was one of Africa’s most evil dictators.” - The Economist, MORE

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“Over the past couple of months, the city of Moscow has seen an unprecedented number of large, confrontational protests...the arrests continue to multiply, prison terms grow longer, and the brutality becomes more brutal….Why is the regime unleashing such spectacular and effortful fury on a few candidates for offices with no power and next to no chance of winning in rigged elections? A common interpretation is that the Kremlin is scared. Vladimir Putin’s popularity is slipping, and even a rigged election can stress the system to the point where its rusty structures give. This could well be true, but it is also true that the system Putin has built is so opaque that we will not know how thoroughly it has rusted until it actually collapses.” - Masha Gessen, New Yorker, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 9/5/2019

In this edition of insights, we examine the threats of tribalism in politics, the U.K. and the democratic tests of their current time, and the current push of policy for regulations that would support stakeholders. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“At this time, we can see storm clouds gathering. A polemicist’s role is not sufficient for a leader. A leader must display strategic acumen that incorporates respect for those nations that have stood with us when trouble loomed. Returning to a strategic stance that includes the interests of as many nations as we can make common cause with, we can better deal with this imperfect world we occupy together. Absent this, we will occupy an increasingly lonely position, one that puts us at increasing risk in the world…Unlike in the past, where we were unified and drew in allies, currently our own commons seems to be breaking apart. What concerns me most as a military man is not our external adversaries; it is our internal divisiveness. We are dividing into hostile tribes cheering against each other, fueled by emotion and a mutual disdain that jeopardizes our future, instead of rediscovering our common ground and finding solutions. All Americans need to recognize that our democracy is an experiment—and one that can be reversed. We all know that we’re better than our current politics. Tribalism must not be allowed to destroy our experiment.” - General Jim Mattis, former Secretary of Defense, Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“In his first days as Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson has attempted some of the most tried-and-true tactics of the populist era. He sought a hostile takeover of his own party and governing institutions, moving to consolidate their power in his hands...Yet Mr. Johnson’s moves have, so far, blown up in his face. Parliament rose against him. His party revolted in sufficient numbers that he has lost his governing majority. While he has delighted his core supporters, there is scant evidence that voters are suddenly rallying behind him or against his opponents. Deep into the era of tear-it-all-down populism, in one of the countries most disrupted by that trend, the fail-safes meant to keep politicians in check are, for once, working as intended. In a time of faltering institutions and norms, they have held. Britain, for all its evident political chaos, is bucking global populist trends. While that might not hold for long, experts say it offers striking lessons for when and how democracy can work as intended — and when it doesn’t.” - Max Fisher, New York Times, MORE

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“If the Business Roundtable is serious about stakeholder capitalism, and if responsible firms are to flourish and spread their benefits, it will not just decree principles according to which its firms will operate but will also push for laws and regulations that support firms’ ability to stand up for their stakeholders. These might include minimum-wage and benefits requirements and broader mandates to protect companies that want to do right by their workers from those competing companies that are ruthlessly pursuing shareholder interests. Or they might include rigorous restrictions on advertising and promotion practices, so firms who are honest and transparent are not placed at a competitive disadvantage. Or universally high capital standards on financial institutions, so that imprudent willingness to take on risk cannot be a competitive advantage.” - Lawrence Summers, former US Treasury Secretary, Washington Post, MORE

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 The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 8/30/19

In today’s insights, we address the future of the Hong Kong protests, 2020 democratic candidate Andrew Yang, and the growing tensions in the Kashmir region of India. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“The Hong Kong protesters should recognize that, like Solidarity in Poland, they risk a major defeat if their actions spark a violent crackdown, probably setting back their cause by at least several years. But the Communist authorities should recognize that, even if they prevail by the use of force in the short term, they may be inviting a far larger backlash in the future. Poland’s declaration of martial law did nothing to address the long list of legitimate grievances of its people; in fact, it forced the Solidarity movement underground, only to resurface with unstoppable momentum in 1989. Chinese leaders always claim to be able to take the long-term view. If they do so now, they should recognize that they desperately need to come up with a nonviolent settlement—for their own good. That will mean convincing the protesters that their aspirations will be treated seriously, with all the key players invited to participate in crafting a genuine Hong Kong solution.” -Andrew Nagorski, Politico, MORE

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“Yang is a 44-year-old entrepreneur from New York and a father of two young sons who’s never run for any office of any kind before this, and whose campaign is fueled by a deeply dystopian view of the near future...a pillar of a platform that can come off as a gimmick...and a zeitgeisty swirl of podcasts, GIFs, tweets and memes. Last week, as a successful governor from a major state dropped out and the bottom half of the bloated field continued to flounder, Yang passed the 200,000 mark for unique donors—outpacing an array of name-known pols. He’s gotten contributions, on average $24 a pop, from 88 percent of the ZIP codes in the country, and he’s on track, he says, to raise twice as much money this quarter as he did last quarter...At the heart of Yang’s appeal is a paradox. In delivering his alarming, existentially unsettling message of automation and artificial intelligence wreaking havoc on America’s economic, emotional and social well-being, he cracks jokes...And his campaign coffers are chock-full of small-number contributors and even $1 donors.”- Michael Kruse, Politico, MORE

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“India has come under increasing criticism for its decision in early August to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy and lock down the area, arresting thousands and cutting off phone and internet service to millions of people..India’s moves could further inflame the area, possibly even stoking a major conflict between the two archrivals [Pakistan and India], both of which have nuclear arms...Critics said that even under India’s tough public safety laws, the lockdown was illegal and that Mr. Modi was bending the Indian legal system to cut off any possible criticism in Kashmir and silence anyone with a voice. On Friday, the streets of Kashmir’s biggest towns were deserted...The authorities routinely beef up security on Fridays, but residents said this Friday had a much heavier presence than usual. Nearly all businesses were closed, out of a pervasive sense of fear...Kashmiris are growing weary, feeling under siege, and now they are worried about getting caught in the middle of a potential war between India and Pakistan.”-Jeffrey Gettlemen, The New York Times, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Compiled by Audrey Kuhnle

Insights, 8/19/19

In this edition of insights, we are focusing on our global sphere. Focusing on the intertwining relationships between CEOs and politicians, shifts in our economic natures, climate change and the crisis it is presenting, the possible push of our global economic to a recession, and the chances of autocracies nations shifting to democracy. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“The Business Roundtable today made a small, symbolic but significant move: 181 of the nation’s top CEOs agreed that driving shareholder value is no longer their sole business objective....They expanded their mission beyond mere wealth creation to include everything from taking care of employees to helping their communities. This shift, spearheaded by BRT Chairman and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, reflects the growing pressure from employees, social media and customers to do more than increase stock prices...CEOs need to be de facto politicians, thanks to several unambiguous social trends: Millennial employees demand their employers stand for something beyond profit; It is getting harder to recruit and retain talent, especially tech talent, if profit is the only objective; A rising number of consumers make purchasing decisions based on a company's social purpose.; The media applies a lot more pressure on CEOs to take positions on political topics, such as race and immigration; Every CEO/company is vulnerable to split-second, social media uprisings. Undefined CEOs and companies find it impossible to push back.” - Jim VandeHei, Axios, MORE

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“Global markets were seized by fear last week that trade wars were slowing growth in Germany, China and the United States. But the story here is bigger than President Trump and his tariffs. The postwar miracle is over. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the world economy has been struggling against four headwinds: deglobalization of trade, depopulation as labor forces shrink, declining productivity and a debt burden as high now as it was right before the crisis. No major economy is growing as fast as it was before 2008... In almost every country, the national discussion focuses on what must be done to revive growth and ignores the fact that the slowdown is driven by forces beyond any one government’s control. Instead of dooming ourselves to serial disappointment and fruitless stimulus campaigns, we need to redefine economic success and failure.” - Ruchir Sharma, Chief Global Strategist, Morgan Stanley, New York Times, MORE

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“Unsustainable land use and greenhouse gas emissions are delivering a one-two punch to natural ecosystems that are key to the fight against global climate change. And without sweeping emissions cuts and transformations to food production and land management, the world stands no chance of staving off catastrophic planetary warming. That’s according to a dire new United Nations assessment of the complex relationship between terrestrial landscapes and climate change. The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, the leading U.N. body of researchers studying human-caused global warming, warns that the unfolding crisis poses a serious threat to global food security.” - Chris D’Angelo, Huffington Post, MORE

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“When assumptions about how the world works are shattered, a global downturn is often the result. The world learned in the early 1970s that the era of cheap oil was over, in the early 1980s that countries could default, and a decade ago that American mortgages and global banks aren’t safe. Today, a similar rethink of globalization is under way. From Washington to Buenos Aires, nations’ mutually reinforcing commitment to open markets is disintegrating. In response, investors are rearranging portfolios, businesses are rethinking investments and policy makers are struggling to respond—all of which are pushing the global economy closer to recession….For the past two years, the U.S. and world economies shrugged off nationalism and populism. Protectionism was contained and more than offset by positives such as Trump’s tax cut and deregulatory drive. It can no longer be ignored: Businesses and investors, unsure of what if any rules will govern international commerce, are retreating from risky investments.” - Greg Ip, Wall street Journal, MORE

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“It has been a good decade for dictatorship. The global influence of the world’s most powerful authoritarian countries, China and Russia, has grown rapidly. For the first time since the late nineteenth century, the cumulative GDP of autocracies now equals or exceeds that of Western liberal democracies...Conversely, it has been a terrible decade for democracy. According to Freedom House, the world is now in the 13th consecutive year of a global democratic recession. Democracies have collapsed or eroded in every region, from Burundi to Hungary, Thailand to Venezuela. Most troubling of all, democratic institutions have proved to be surprisingly brittle in countries where they once seemed stable and secure...scholars used to hope that it was only a matter of time until some of the world’s most powerful autocracies would be forced to democratize, they now concede too readily that these regimes have permanently solved the challenge of sustaining their legitimacy.” - Yascha Mounk [Past TCG Speaker], Foreign Affairs, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 8/5/2019

In today’s edition of insights, we draw attention to domestic terrorism, foreign-policy issues, and climate change. Insights on gun violence rising along with domestic terrorism, the requirement of stronger foreign policy and reponses, engagement with china, and the American belief in climate change. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“Two mass shootings within 24 hours in El Paso and Dayton, days after the Garlic Festival killings. Three months after Virginia Beach, six months after Aurora, nine months after Thousand Oaks, 10 months after Tree of Life, 15 months after Santa Fe High School, 18 months after Parkland and in the wake of larger horrors like the Vegas concert and Pulse nightclub massacres... God save us all, sir. People all across the nation are scared; many feel like the country is spinning out of control. They’re looking to their leaders for more than prayers. America is terrified.” - NY Post, MORE

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“Violence committed by white men inspired by an extremist ideology makes up a growing number of domestic terrorism cases, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Of about 850 current domestic terrorism cases, 40% involve racially motivated violent extremism and a majority of those cases involve white supremacists, the FBI said…Preventing—and understanding—such crimes has been vexing for federal law-enforcement officials, who in recent years had been more focused on the threat posed by radical Islam and homegrown terrorists who pledge fealty to Islamic State.” - Dan Frosch, Zusha Elinson and Sadie Gurman, Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“More than 75 percent of mass shooters have alerted others to their plans, according to a U.S. Department of Homeland Security report. Nicole Hockley [TCG Past Speaker], mother of slain son Dylan, killed in Newtown, CT, co-founder of Sandy Hook Promise, urged community members to speak up if they suspect someone might be planning an act of violence. ‘It is critical to know that there are signs - like a hate manifesto, social media posts, and notable fascination with guns - that point to increased potential for violence. We must stay vigilant and say something when we see these warning signals.’” - Julia Perkins, CT Post, MORE

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“Today, the United States doesn’t need a grand [foreign policy] strategy. Instead, U.S. leaders need to identify their priorities and craft strategies for each of them. The foreign-policy issues that matter to the lives of Americans—from climate change to pandemic diseases to cyberattacks—increasingly require global responses. And leaders need to convince the American people that these challenges affect them directly and that tackling them requires robust U.S. engagement in the world.” - Michael H. Fuchs, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Foreign Policy, MORE

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“A failure to connect competitive means to clear ends will allow U.S. policy to drift toward [U.S.-Chinese] competition for competition’s sake and then fall into a dangerous cycle of confrontation...But in the rush to embrace competition, policymakers may be substituting a new variety of wishful thinking for the old. The basic mistake of engagement was to assume that it could bring about fundamental changes to China’s political system, economy, and foreign policy. Washington risks making a similar mistake today, by assuming that competition can succeed in transforming China where engagement failed—this time forcing capitulation or even collapse.” - Kurt Campbell, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and Jake Sullivan, former National Security Adviser to the U.S. Vice President, Foreign Affairs, MORE

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“President Trump has set the tone for Republicans by deriding climate change, using White House resources to undermine science and avoiding even uttering the phrase. Outside of a handful of states such as Florida, where addressing climate change has become more bipartisan, analysts said Republican politicians were unlikely to buck Mr. Trump or even to talk about climate change on the campaign trail at all, except perhaps to criticize Democrats for supporting the Green New Deal. ‘Americans believe climate change is real, and that number goes up every single month,’ Frank Luntz [TCG Past Speaker], a veteran Republican strategist, told a Congressional panel recently. He also circulated a memo to congressional Republicans in June warning that climate change was ‘a G.O.P. vulnerability and a G.O.P. opportunity.’” - Lisa Friedman, New York Times, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 7/31/19

In this edition of insights, we address issues of budgetary spending, cyber resilience, data breaches, and Iranian negotiations. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“You often hear that in these polarized times, Republicans and Democrats are deadlocked on almost everything. But the real scandal is what both sides agree on. The best example of this might be the defense budget. Last week, the Democratic House, which Republicans say is filled with radicals, voted to appropriate $733 billion for 2020 defense spending. The Republicans are outraged because they — along with President Trump — want that number to be $750 billion. In other words, on the largest item of discretionary spending in the federal budget, accounting for more than half of the total, Democrats and Republicans are divided by 2.3 percent. That is the cancerous consensus in Washington today.” - Fareed Zakaria [Past TCG Speaker], Washington Post, MORE

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“The time for new cyber strategies is over. The United States should work to achieve ‘cyber resilience,’ in which we actively manage the risk posed by even the most persistent nation-state actors...this year the Cyber Solarium Commission, a bipartisan national commission established to create a comprehensive U.S. cyber policy, is hard at work trying to ‘provide strategic guidance and policy recommendations on how to defend ourselves against cyber threats.’ The Solarium is the latest effort in a long list of similar commissions intended to come up with a new approach to solving our cyber insecurity.” - Rob Knake, Council on Foreign Relations, MORE

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“In just the last month the Federal Trade Commission has brokered settlements with Facebook, Google and Equifax over data breaches and mishandling of consumer information. If you squint, it looks a bit like justice served. Together, these weak enforcements reveal a structural asymmetry between data brokers and the government. The old enforcement mechanisms of regulatory agencies (fines, public shaming) are no match for the size of these companies and the unprecedented amount of lucrative personal information they possess. In this way, the feds seem only to partially grasp the business models of the companies they seek to regulate. Facebook, Google and Equifax all derive their profit and power from collecting data and controlling its supply in an economy where demand for data is insatiable. Any effort then to check that power — or curb those profits — can come only from changing the ways these companies amass our personal information.” - Charlie Warzel, New York Times, MORE

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“Iranian officials now appear to be negotiating—and rather than using back-channels, they’re doing it in plain sight. Iranian officials, most notably the foreign minister, have been angling for diplomacy with Washington. And Tehran’s provocations in the Gulf, if you look past the breathless headlines, can be seen as a crucial part of their good cop-bad cop negotiating strategy—one that reinforces persuasion with intimidation. Taken together, the signals suggest that Iranians are setting the table for talks, and if President Donald Trump is serious about wanting to ‘make Iran great again,' he should make the most of this opportunity before tensions spiral out of control.” - Suzanne Maloney, Politico Magazine, MORE 

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 7/26/19

In today’s edition of Insights, we focus on democracy - how people are fighting for it abroad, how ours is running today, and what may impact its longevity. With expert takes on the Hong Kong protests and their repercussions for the Chinese government, how Supreme Court rulings will impact the upcoming election, what the vast 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate field says about the party, and the historical roots of our present economic issues. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“[For] China’s hard-line leader, Xi Jinping, the reaction was a humiliating rejection of his basic premise that Western liberties and independent judiciaries are incompatible with the “people’s republic.” Yet so long as the protests were big but peaceful, he seemed content to have his captive media grumble about “Western” incitement and otherwise inform the mainland public as little as possible about what was going on in Hong Kong. The Beijing-backed leader of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, was left to retreat, issuing public apologies and then indefinitely suspending consideration of the contentious legislation. All that changed on Monday, the day Hong Kong’s Beijing-endorsed officials were to make their annual demonstration of fealty to China at ceremonies marking the anniversary of the handover of sovereignty from Britain to China. A small group of masked protesters broke away from a peaceful march and attacked the legislature, smashing down glass doors, destroying official portraits and spray-painting slogans in the formal chamber. It will be weeks before the legislators can meet there again.” - Editorial Board, New York Times, MORE

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“The Supreme Court is already poised to drop some big political bombshells right into the heat of the 2020 campaign. And there are even more waiting in the wings. Why it matters: The court will likely hand down rulings on some of the most contentious issues in American politics just a few weeks before the Democratic convention. They'll be a reminder of just how often the justices effectively have the final say — and that 2020 is a race to pick the next justices. The court’s next term will “probably help to crystalize people’s thinking in the political season about the importance and the role of the court,” said Leonard Leo, the executive vice president of the Federalist Society and a key adviser on President Trump’s Supreme Court nominations.” - Sam Baker, Axios, MORE

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“The slate of 24 contenders is too unwieldy for a constructive debate, many activists and strategists say, and too large for most voters to follow. And with a leadership vacuum at the top of the party, there is no one to elevate candidates with an endorsement, or help steer third-tier candidates out of the race when they’ve reached their plausible expiration date.” - Reid Epstein, New York Times, MORE

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“Today’s woes have their roots in the 1990s, when policymakers set the world on its current, hyperglobalist path, requiring domestic economies to be put in the service of the world economy instead of the other way around. In trade, the transformation was signaled by the creation of the World Trade Organization, in 1995. The WTO not only made it harder for countries to shield themselves from international competition but also reached into policy areas that international trade rules had not previously touched: agriculture, services, intellectual property, industrial policy, and health and sanitary regulations. Even more ambitious regional trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, took off around the same time.” - Dani Rodrik, Foreign Affairs, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 7/18/19

In today’s edition of Insights, we tackle the issues of freedoms in Hong Kong, the immigration debate within the U.S., and the struggles of the U.S. congress. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“At root, the confrontation with the West is not about trade. It is about two fundamentally incompatible political systems, two different understandings of what modern civilization is...The youth of Hong Kong, who have grown up well informed by the internet, are keenly aware of the stark alternatives before them. They are accustomed to freedom, personal rights and access to information. They know what they want, what they are defending and the nature of the opposition they face. They have watched the freedoms of Hong Kong — in the media, education, housing, commerce and elsewhere — slowly slip away, and they know that the Communist Party stops at nothing in pursuing its interests.” - Ai WeiWei [TCG Past Speaker], New York Times, MORE

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“The country is being riven by a seething immigration debate, left unresolved by successive administrations and Congresses...The immigration system is broken and needs fixing, yet the emotions now being stirred probably are making it less likely, not more likely, that it will be fixed any time soon... The president’s attack on the congresswomen had significant racial overtones, because all four are women of color. But the policy debate running beneath the charged rhetoric is over immigration. The nuts and bolts of the immigration problem now riveting the country are relatively simple. Rampant social violence and economic dislocation are compelling working men and women in Central America to seek a way out. Current immigration law and court rulings have created a muddle over when and how such people might seek asylum in the U.S., and what should be done with them when they do so. ”- Gerald F. Seib [TCG Past Speaker], Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“....Congress is not a place where you achieve radical progress — certainly not in divided government. It’s a place where you work at it and work at it and don’t get everything you want. The progressives act as though anyone who dares disagree with them is bad. Not wrong, but bad, guilty of some human failing, some impurity that is a moral evil that justifies their venom….In the age of Trump, there is no more stupid proposition than that Nancy Pelosi is the problem. If A.O.C. and her Pygmalions and acolytes decide that burning down the House is more important than deposing Trump, they will be left with a racist backward president and the emotional satisfaction of their own purity.” - Maureen Dowd, New York Times, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Artificial Intelligence and Military Engagement

The Common Good had the honor of hosting Major General (Ret.) Dr. Robert H. Latiff on May 10th, 2019 at The Common Good Forum & American Spirit Awards, an annual program presenting headline issues and the most important, forward-looking ideas affecting public policy and our lives. Latiff is a retired U.S. Air Force Major General and Adjunct Faculty Member with the John J. Reilly Center for Science, Technology, and Values at the University of Notre Dame. He is also the author of Future War: Preparing for the New Global Battlefield, and his scholarly and military experience makes him an expert on the topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the military.

Automated drones are commonplace in the modern battlefield today.

Latiff spoke about the role of AI in warfare, beginning his talk by acknowledging that the hype around AI is often overblown; the development of AI does not necessitate the reign of robots over human beings, as depicted in popular science-fiction movies today. However, he did admit that AI has the power to alter “the fabric of our society” - it is an “incredibly powerful tool that needs careful examination and deliberation before being used in some things like the military, which have life and death consequences.”

AI is the science of making intelligent machines capable of achieving set goals by its own computation. The type of AI relevant to military applications is called Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI). ANI is capable of tasks such as image recognition and game supremacy in chess or Jeopardy. In warfare, it can learn from decades of combat injury data to devise means of avoiding similar injuries, improve the military logistics system by figuring out what combatants need to succeed in battle, and free humans from doing boring, repetitive, and dangerous jobs. 

Weaponry may be integrated with facial recognition, but can it be trusted to find the correct targets?

AI has seized the attention of leaders around the globe. The apparent potential for AI to increase military and political power has prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to state that “whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” In 2017, Putin declared AI a priority in Russia’s effort to engage in direct geopolitical competition with the world’s great powers. The United States (US) has implied a similar priority: in June 2018, the Pentagon established the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC), which oversees the roughly 600 AI projects currently underway across the department at a proported cost of $1.7 billion. 

According to a 2019 World Intellectual Property Organization study on the global upsurge of AI in inventive activity, the US is currently leading in AI incorporation, but Latiff warned that China may soon overtake the US as the global leader of AI innovation. China released an AI plan in 2017, declaring AI a national priority for the country and announcing the leadership’s vision for a new economic model driven by AI. Indeed, according to a study by Sinovation Ventures AI institute, the number of AI research authors in China is increasing. With citation output growing rapidly, Chinese researchers may outpace their American counterparts as the main producers of AI research in the near future. 

“While the military says it won’t let a computer pull the trigger, it is developing target recognition systems to suggest when to do so and algorithms to turn a commander’s general intent into a detailed combat plan.”

Latiff warned that racing to implement AI systems, specifically into the military, comes with significant drawbacks. First, he noted that AI systems cannot explain why they make their decisions, making it hard to understand their successes and failures and adjust for future decisions. Second, he referenced AI’s vulnerability to spoofing and false data, whether from adversarial input or stray information. This vulnerability makes AI systems susceptible to reaching extreme or unpredictable conclusions that may harm their users. Third, he argued that AI systems are hard to trust, as such systems cannot be fully explained and thus not fully tested. According to the retired Major General, trustworthiness is an important quality in military minds as military commanders “do not very much like surprises”; the often unexpected or even aggressive behaviors exhibited by AIs are not compatible with such values. Ultimately, since AI systems may provide unpredictable answers, they could instill more confusion on a battlefield, not less.

In addition to its shortcomings in military applications, Latiff explained that AI has the ability to usher in an ominous future for global warfare. He argued that the most concerning use of AI today is the implementation of AI into command and control systems for the military. Decision makers use these systems as sources of knowledge about threats and for decision-making assistance based on this knowledge. 

“Indeed, human beings are capable of empathetic and good, sometimes counterintuitive decisions. Machines, even smart ones, are unlikely to be capable of such nuance.”

Latiff warned that introducing AI into control centers may compound military aggression. In recent years, the US military has turned to increasingly bellicose and forward approaches. Such trends would be registered by AIs in the control center, which would generate more aggressive combat plans in turn. Latiff explained that AI systems are not capable of coming up with empathetic or counter-intuitive solutions.

Pictured: a nuclear weapons base in the USSR, Stanislav Petrov

If Soviet military leaders had given such power to AI in 1983, the world may have suffered nuclear devastation. In 1983, former Soviet military officer Stanislav Petrov spotted a warning from computers that the U.S. had launched several missiles. If this were true, the Soviets could have launched missiles of their own by the promise of mutually assured destruction. Petrov who determined that the warning was illegitimate upon closer inspection, has since been credited as the man who saved the world from nuclear ruin. It is unlikely that such a decision would be made by an AI system. Latiff stressed that such detrimental shortcomings must be considered before AI is implemented into higher offices of the military.

“Maintaining peace as AI becomes more widespread will require strong diplomacy. ”

AI could also erode geopolitical stability and remove the status of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence. The idea that the possession of nuclear weapons maintains peace rests on the notion that one country will not use its nuclear weapons on another country it knows to possess such weapons, as doing so would result in its own destruction. According to a research paper by the Rand Corporation, the potential for AI and machine-learning to dictate military actions could mean that the assurance of stability breaks down; countries become less confident in their ability to predict the moves of their adversaries and thus become more insecure in their own passivity. 

Maintaining peace as AI becomes more widespread will require strong diplomacy. Latiff argued that agreements among nations may be even more important in the struggle to maintain peace than military strength and preparedness. The Rand Corporation paper suggests the same. Meanwhile, the US has withdrawn from the ABM treaty, the INF treaty, and the Iran nuclear agreement while refusing to consider treaties on space or cyber warfare. For now, it seems likely that AI weapon development will continue at a rapid pace, but an international agreement may not be far behind. According to Latiff, there is a broad, perhaps tacit agreement that AI systems are to be used wisely, and that the UN must come together to agree on a way to do so responsibly. 

 Author: Francesca Martini [TCG Intern]

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Watch Dr. Latiff’s full discussion below:

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 7/4/19

In this edition of insights, we adventure into the topics of a liberal democracy, President Trump’s July 4th celebration, U.S. trade negotiations with China, and overcrowding and other issues at Customs and Border Protection Facilities. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“The Russian president claims liberalism is obsolete. He is wrong. It is more necessary than ever even as Trump scoffs at it. But America’s ability to promote liberal democracy cannot be served by what Ambassador Bill Burns [TCG Past Speaker] calls ‘a State Department in which officers are bludgeoned into timidity, or censor themselves, or are simply ignored.’” - Roger Cohen [TCG Past Speaker], New York Times, MORE

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“Since President Donald Trump announced his proposal for a military display and presidential speech on the National Mall, Trump’s critics across the political spectrum, have reached a consensus: The president’s intrusion into Independence Day is a hijacking. New York Times columnist Michelle Cottle complains that Trump is "trampling a longstanding tradition of keeping these events nonpartisan — apolitical even — and focused on bringing the nation together.” The same sentiment came from...conservative Trump skeptics like radio host Charlie Sykes and former GOP Congressman David Jolly [TCG Past Speaker]...By one measure, the criticism is overwrought. There have been presidents who've appeared during celebrations at the Capitol, most recently Harry Truman in 1951...Celebrations of the Fourth do not tend to benefit both parties equally, and here, Trump may well be demonstrating his instinctive grasp of which way a big event tends to nudge the populace.” Jeff Greenfield, Politico Magazine, MORE

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“In its trade negotiations with China, the U.S. should have all the leverage. It buys far more from China than vice versa, is sole supplier of numerous critical technologies and commands more loyalty from the rest of the world. But China brings one powerful advantage of its own: clarity of purpose. Though its negotiating priorities change, over the decades its goal has remained the same: moving steadily up the development ladder while remaining a one-party state. The U.S. ban on supplying key inputs to Huawei Technologies Co. was an existential threat to the next stage in that development, competing globally in the world’s most advanced technologies. Thus, when President Xi Jinping met President Trump on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, this past weekend, his main condition for restarting negotiations was to lift the ban. U.S. leaders, for their part, have long been divided over whether to treat China as a partner that can be managed or a rival that must be ostracized. The Trump administration is itself split, and the president’s decision to give Huawei a temporary reprieve has left the endgame as muddy as ever.” - Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“A new government report describes in detail the prolonged detention, overcrowding and security risks at Customs and Border Protection (CBP) facilities in the Rio Grande Valley, including facilities housing children and families. The report, published by the Department of Homeland Security Office of the Inspector General, included details of visits to five detention facilities and two ports of entry, including several photos. In one photo, 88 men are huddled in a cell with a maximum capacity of 41. The report described the situation as “a ticking time bomb,” detailing the scenes witnessed.” - Jasmine Aguilera, Time, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.

Insights, 6/28/19

This week, we are drawing attention to three issues: the recent Supreme Court decision on Gerrymandering, the first Democratic debates for the 2020 Presidential race, and how the present administration has molded our relationship with China. Read the insights below, and, of course, we encourage you to read the articles in full and inform yourself on these important issues:

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“The rulings by the Supreme Court on Thursday in bitterly contested battles over partisan gerrymandering and the addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 census grappled with issues fundamental to the nation’s democracy: How power is allocated, and ultimately, how much of a voice the American people have in selecting their leaders. But far from settling these questions, the court has unleashed even higher-pitched and partisan struggles over once-settled aspects of the country’s governance, placing greater pressures on the nation’s political system.” - Michael Wines, New York Times, MORE

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“Messy as they were, the first set of Democratic presidential debates did their job: They helped sort out the party’s giant field of candidates. They showed there’s a distinct progressive camp, which is colliding, noisily, with a centrist camp. They also identified the main issue—health care—that divides these two camps. Yet the proceedings left one big question hanging: Did the debates help the party start to win over the kinds of working-class voters Democrats need to beat President Trump? Or, by pushing the party more to the left, did they do the opposite?” - Gerald Seib [TCG Past Speaker], Wall Street Journal, MORE

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“The rivalry between the United States and China is here to stay. But the Trump administration is bringing the wrong tools to the contest, applying blunt trade-war tactics reminiscent of the nineteenth century instead of crafting a strategy to keep the United States the world’s economic and technological leader in the twenty-first. Defensive protectionism will not meet the China challenge; only domestic revival can do that. Restoring the United States’ global standing and revitalizing its economy will require an ambitious strategy that doesn’t rely solely on changing Chinese behavior so much as on preparing the United States to compete...The Trump administration is right that China’s high-tech mercantilism threatens U.S. economic competitiveness and national security. China aims to replace the United States as the global leader in several high-tech sectors. The Trump administration is also right that the United States should push back...Tariffs were always a poor choice to change Beijing’s behavior...They are alienating U.S. allies. And, analysts warn, they are increasing the risk of a global recession. There’s a better solution.” - Tom Donilon, former National Security Adviser, Foreign Affairs, MORE

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Common Good.