Economic Forecast for 2021

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ABOUT THE EVENT

Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone and Joe Zidle, Managing Director and the Chief Investment Strategist at Blackstone come together for an unprecedented conversation on the economy.  Join us with these legends of the industry, experts of Wall Street and icons in the economic world for a special forecast on the economy and the markets given the many unusual factors - Covid, a new Administration and the continued political divide, raging unemployment, etc. What are we likely to see in the next few months and what can we hope for?

Thursday, February 11th, 2021

5pm ET

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Byron Wien is Vice Chairman of Blackstone’s Private Wealth Solutions group where he acts as a senior adviser to both the Firm and its clients in analyzing economic, social and political trends to assess the direction of financial markets and thus help guide investment and strategic decisions. 

He has been known for being "the most widely read analyst on Wall Street," "the No. 1 strategist by SmartMoney.com based on his market calls." and was named to the Smart Money Power 30 list of Wall Street’s most influential investors, thinkers, enforcers, policy makers, players and market movers. He was also named by New York Magazine as one of the sixteen most influential people in Wall Street.

He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist for Pequot Capital and before that served for 21 years as Chief (later Senior) U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. In 1995, Mr. Wien co-authored a book with George Soros on the legendary investor’s life and philosophy, Soros on Soros – Staying Ahead of the Curve.

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Joe Zidle is a Managing Director and the Chief Investment Strategist in the Private Wealth Solutions group. He has been on CNBC and is known for his ability to spot trends in reams of data.  

He previously spent nearly a decade at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, most recently serving as Head of Investment Strategy for Global Wealth Management and Deputy Director of the Research Investment Committee, where he was responsible for creating and communicating global investment strategies to the firm's private client division across all major investment disciplines. He was also with  Richard Bernstein Advisors, as an independent investment advisor, where he was responsible for portfolio strategy, asset allocation, investment management and marketing to major wealth management firms and independent RIAs.

Kurt Andersen: Evil Geniuses

Event Recap

While the last four years in America have certainly felt crazy and chaotic, the best-selling author of the recent book, “Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History,” Kurt Andersen, contends that the insanity actually started much earlier, beginning back in the 1970s. Joined by rock-star Vanity Fair journalist, Joe Hagan, Kurt traces where America went wrong, what exactly happened and how we can get back to a more equitable, prosperous and ultimately more sane America. 

Who are the evil geniuses and how did we get here?

Joe Hagan, who had previously interviewed Kurt for Vanity Fair, correctly notes that America seems particularly ‘unmade” in 2020. 

As Kurt sees it, we are struggling with two sets of problems:

1. Americans have an increasingly problematic relationship with empirical facts. Without a broad agreement on what’s real and what’s fake, civic discourse, democracy and well, the common good (I had to) all invariably suffer. 

2. The rigging of our economic system by big corporations, the courts and “hyper-capitalists,” exemplified by (to name a few) Milton Friedman, The Federalist Society, Business Roundtable, the Koch brothers and Citizens United. Collectively and gradually, these individuals and institutions created an economic and accompanying belief system that centered on maximizing profits at the expense of the public, the environment and our democracy. This strategic confederacy amounted to a repudiation of big government, shifting the paradigm from New Deal politics to rugged individualism and trickle down economics. Reagan personified this sentiment, but the seeds were planted well beforehand. 

Corporate hedonism of the 1980s replaced the free-love, everything goes counterculture of the 1970s. 

White Kurt certainly doesn’t hold back from scolding the GOP, he also blames Democrats (and himself) or “useful idiots” for perpetuating this rigged system and turning their backs on blue collar workers, who got pummeled by outsourcing, automation, and union-bashing (I would add rising healthcare and higher education costs). 

• Democrats and Republicans merged, philosophically, on economics, leaving the GOP with an opening to exploit cultural wedge issues and lure many of these disillusioned Americans over to the GOP.

• Kurt uses Reagan’s decision to fire striking air traffic controllers set a tone for how business could handle strikes and unions going forward. He also mentions the 1982 SEC decision that allowed publicly traded companies to buy their own stock to inflate their stock prices, which hadn’t been allowed since The Great Depression, as an illustrative moment. 

Addressing this encroaching sense of loss, Republicans sold Americans this nostalgic tale of returning to an “It’s a Wonderful Life” version of America. The GOP used nostalgia to sell a bill of goods that ultimately didn’t work. 

So in the face of all this, people, understandably, wanted to know what could be done. 

Kurt said that Democrats needed to focus on the economy, but in a larger, more holistic sort of way. It’s not just about wages or employment numbers - the system is rigged and inequality is out of control. Dems have to meet the people where they are - look at the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s - and recognize the centrality of economic issues in peoples’ lives. 

• Cultural and identity issues, while important, should play second fiddle in terms of messaging and priorities.  

• He noted Elizabeth Warren’s brilliance and accuracy in diagnosing our ills; however, he conceded that she might not have been the right candidate. 

Kurt also pointed to other advanced capitalist democracies as models. Dems shouldn’t kowtow to conservatives and scare easily when they proclaim socialism - look at free market countries in Scandinavia that combine robust capitalism with strong, effective social safety nets. The issues, because they were created, can be undone. 
What we’re watching: Totally Under Control:Film-maker Alex Gibney scrutinises the US response to the pandemic. (Hulu, Amazon)

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Kurt Andersen is a remarkable writer who is known for his work as the host of the erstwhile Peabody-winning public radio program Studio 360. He regularly appears as a commentator on MSNBC, and has delivered TED talks. He served as a summer guest Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times, and still contributes regularly to the Times. He has also been also a regular columnist and critic for New York, The New Yorker and TIME.
As an editor, Kurt co-founded the transformative satirical magazine Spy and served as editor-in-chief of New York. He also co-founded Inside, a digital and print publication covering the media and entertainment industries, oversaw a relaunch of Colors magazine, co-founded the online newsletter Very Short List, and served as editor-at- large for Random House.

His writing have been praised with awards including forTurn of the Century which won the New York Times Notable Book of the Year, Heyday which won the Langum Prize for the best American historical fiction.

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Moderated by Joe Hagan, special correspondent for Vanity Fair. He has written for New York, Rolling Stone, The Wall Street Journal, and many other publications. Hagan recently interviewed author, Kurt Andersen, where they unpack his newest book Evil Geniuses and unravels how the right helped create a wildly inequitable society—and how Americans could hold the government accountable for overlooking their economic interests.

His work includes long-form profiles and investigative exposés of some of the most significant figures and subjects of our time, including Beto O’Rourke, Hillary Clinton (her first post–secretary of state interview), Karl Rove, the Bush family, Henry Kissinger, Dan Rather, Goldman Sachs, The New York Times, and Twitter. In 2010, he discovered the diaries of singer Nina Simone and wrote about them for The Believer magazine. He lives with his family in Tivoli, New York.

"The Economy in Crisis - When the Worst is Yet to Come" with Glenn Hutchins and Andy Serwer

With massive unemployment, more businesses closing permanently, and the most devastating three-month collapse on record, what is next? The Common Good was joined by brilliant investor and business legend Glenn Hutchins, co-founder of the hugely successful Silver Lake Partners, Vice Chairman of Brookings, former Senior Advisor to President Clinton and board member of the NY Fed. The conversation was moderated by Andy Serwer, the former managing director of Fortune and the current Editor-in-Chief of Yahoo! Business.

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Glenn Hutchins has earned respect and success at the top of the business world, philanthropy, and public service. He is chairman of North Island and a co-founder of Silver Lake, and also served as chairman of the board of SunGard Data Systems, Inc. and Instinet, Inc. and a director of Nasdaq, Inc.   Previously, Mr. Hutchins served President Clinton in the White House as a special advisor on both economic and health-care policy. He was also a director of Harvard Management Company and co-chairman of Harvard University’s capital campaign.

Andy Serwer is the editor in chief for Yahoo Finance, where he oversees all editorial content from breaking news to in-depth stories to original video programming. He was previously the managing editor of Fortune and worked at Time Inc. for 29 years. He has been a regular guest on MSNBC’S Morning Joe and CNBC’s Squawkbox and many other TV and radio programs.

Serwer's daily online musings have earned him a reputation as one of the sharpest and most entertaining market commentators anywhere. According to an article in the May 22, 2000, New Yorker, "Achaea had Homer, the Spanish Civil War had Hemingway, California had the Beach Boys, and now our hyperactive stock market has its own poet-singer--Andy Serwer." He was named 2000 Business Journalist of the Year by TJFR, who called him "perhaps the nation's top multimedia talent, successfully juggling the roles of serious journalist, astute commentator and occasional court jester."

"Coming Back from Crisis" with Governor Larry Hogan and Former Secretary Jeh Johnson

Governor Larry Hogan joined The Common Good for a conversation to discuss the pandemic. Moderated by former Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, the two discussed the state and federal response; unrest, racism and police brutality. Join us for expert insights into the 2020 political landscape and the direction of our country as well as many other issues of national interest.

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Governor Larry Hogan is a lifelong Marylander who is the son of Congressman Lawrence Hogan (MD-5). As a young man, Governor Hogan worked on his father’s campaigns, at first stuffing envelopes and knocking on doors, and eventually helping to manage them. .Hogan continued to work for his father when he was County Executive of Prince George's County.

He later went to create a real estate firm which quickly became the leading land development firm in the state of Maryland, focusing on economic development and bringing hundreds of businesses and thousands of jobs to the state. In 2011, Hogan founded the grassroots organization Change Maryland. What began as an idea between a few friends quickly grew into the largest grassroots organization in State history and the leading voice of support for tax relief, responsible budgeting, and economic growth.

Governor Hogan was elected in 2014 and became the first Republican Governor to be re-elected for a second term in half a century. He has received mass praise for his work towards bipartisanship, being efficient, and always putting the needs of Maryland families and businesses first. Its main focus is to get the State’s budget under control, eliminate waste and abuse in State government, provide tax relief to struggling Marylanders, and bring jobs and businesses back to the State.

Secretary Jeh Johnson was appointed by President Obama on December 23, 2013, following confirmation by the U.S. Senate by a vote of 78-16.  Between 2013 and 2017 he served as Secretary of Homeland Security. Previously, Secretary Johnson was appointed by President Obama to be General Counsel of the Department of Defense from 2009 through 2012. In that position, Johnson was one of the legal architects for the U.S. military’s counter terrorism mission during President Obama’s first term.

In 2010, Johnson co-authored a 250-page report that paved the way for the repeal by Congress of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell law that prohibited gays from serving openly in the U.S. military. From October 1998 to January 2001, Johnson served in the Clinton Administration as General Counsel of the Department of the Air Force. From 1989 through 1991, Secretary Johnson was an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of New York, where he prosecuted public corruption cases.

“Prospects for Business and the Economy" with Anthony Scaramucci & Fred Hochberg

Former White House Communications Director, Anthony Scaramucci joined The Common Good for a vital conversation on the future of our economy based on the impact of the Coronavirus. Moderated by former Export- Import Bank President Fred Hochberg, the two provided TCG members with insight into the prospects of our businesses and the economy over the next 6 to 18 months.

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Former White House Communications Director, Anthony Scaramucci joined The Common Good for a vital conversation on the future of our economy based on the impa...

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Mr. Anthony Scaramucci is the Founder and Co-Managing Partner of SkyBridge Capital. Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. 

In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team, Executive Committee. In June 2017, he was named the Chief Strategy Officer of the EX-IM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017.

In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’s Power 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year – New York” Award in the Financial Services category and is the author of four books. 

Mr. Fred Hochberg is a leading world expert on business, trade, and the economy. Under his leadership, the Ex-Im Bank supported more than 1.4 million American jobs and financed exports with a value exceeding $240 billion, while generating $3.8 billion in surplus revenue for U.S. taxpayers and reducing internal costs by nearly 30 percent.

Mr. Hochberg also spearheaded the Small Business Administration. Hochberg knows business: he served as an executive for the extremely successful catalog company, Lillian Vernon Corp., founded by his mother.  He recently published a book on trade entitled, "Trade is Not a Four Letter Word."

"Social Impact - Change and Investing in the Wake of the Coronavirus" with Sir Ronald Cohen and Alan Patricof

The Common Good presented a timely conference call with social impact investor and Father of British Venture Capital and Social Investment leader, Sir Ronald Cohen. Hosted by venture capital investor Alan Patricof, the two provided brilliant insight on the topic of social change, investing, business, and the economy in the unprecedented time of the corona pandemic.

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Sir Ronald Cohen is Chairman of the Global Steering Group for Impact Investment and The Portland Trust. He is a co-founder director of Social Finance UK, USA, and Israel, and co-founder Chair of Bridges Fund Management and Big Society Capital. 

For nearly two decades, Sir Ronald’s pioneering initiatives in driving impact investment have catalyzed a number of global efforts, each focused on driving private capital to serve social and environmental good. These efforts are leading the global impact investment movement towards an Impact Revolution. He is credited as "the father of British Venture Capital" and "the father of social investment", along with being the head of the G-20 Social Impact Commission. 

He chaired the Social Impact Investment Taskforce established under the UK’s presidency of the G8, the Social Investment Task Force and the Commission on Unclaimed Assets. In 2012 he received the Rockefeller Foundation’s Innovation Award for innovation in social finance.

Alan Patricof is the founder and managing director of Greycroft. A longtime innovator and advocate for venture capital, Alan entered the industry in its formative days with the creation of Patricof & Co. Ventures Inc., a predecessor to Apax Partners – today, one of the world’s leading private equity firms with $41 billion under management. He stepped back from the daily administration and operational aspects of Apax Partners, LP in 2004 to concentrate on a group of small venture deals on its behalf.

In 2006, he founded Greycroft Partners, a venture capital firm, to invest in leading early and expansion stage investments in digital media. With offices in New York and Los Angeles, Greycroft is currently investing from its fifth Fund as well as its second Growth Fund and has $1B+ under management.

Alan is active in the New York and Washington communities. He is currently a board member of the Finance Committee of Northside Center for Child Development in Harlem and the Board of Overseers of Columbia School of Business. He is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations

The States’ Response to the Coronavirus: How do we re-open?

The Common Good presented the first in a new series of conversations with top U.S. Leaders. Former Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson headed our critical Coronavirus discussion with Governor Ned Lamont. (D-CT) The discussion dove into urgent topics such as the re-opening of the economy, protecting human lives and what our new normal will look like.

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About Gov. Ned Lamont:

Lamont got involved in public service shortly after college, founding a weekly newspaper in a town hit by the loss of its largest employer. Covering town meetings and the Board of Selectmen, he helped to bring voice and transparency to a community working to recover from job losses and reinvent itself. He would later go on to start his own business, taking on the large and established giants of the telecom industry. Under his vision and stewardship, the company grew to serve over 400 of America's largest college campuses and 1 million college students across the nation.

He received the 2006 Democratic nomination for senator, against incumbent Joe Lieberman. Lamont won the 2018 Gubernatorial election for Connecticut and has started working on his plans to implement electronic tolls on state highways, taxing online streaming services, restoring the property tax credit, increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour, instituting paid family and medical leave,. During this epidemic he holds daily briefings and provides vital updates on how the state is combating COVID-19. 

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About Secretary Jeh Johnson:

Secretary Johnson was appointed by President Obama on December 23, 2013, following confirmation by the U.S. Senate by a vote of 78-16. Previously, Secretary Johnson was appointed by President Obama to be General Counsel of the Department of Defense from 2009 through 2012. In that position, Johnson was one of the legal architects for the U.S. military’s counterterrorism mission during President Obama’s first term.

In 2010, Johnson co-authored a 250-page report that paved the way for the repeal by Congress of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell law that prohibited gays from serving openly in the U.S. military. From October 1998 to January 2001, Johnson served in the Clinton Administration as General Counsel of the Department of the Air Force. From 1989 through 1991, Secretary Johnson was an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of New York, where he prosecuted public corruption cases.

"The Coronavirus: Impact On Business & The U.S. Response” with Fred Hochberg and Kay Koplovitz

On April 14th 2020, The Common Good hosted an important COVID-19 economic briefing and Q&A with former Chairman and President of the Export-Import Bank Fred Hochberg and Kay Koplovitz, founder of USA Networks and Founder and Chairman of Springboard Enterprises.

Watch the video below:

About Fred Hochberg:

Mr. Hochberg is a leading world expert on business, trade, and the economy. Under his leadership, the Ex-Im Bank supported more than 1.4 million American jobs and financed exports with a value exceeding $240 billion, while generating $3.8 billion in surplus revenue for U.S. taxpayers and reducing internal costs by nearly 30 percent.

Mr. Hochberg also spearheaded the Small Business Administration. Hochberg knows business: he served as an executive for the extremely successful catalog company, Lillian Vernon Corp., founded by his mother.  He recently published a book on trade entitled, "Trade is Not a Four Letter Word."

About Kay Koplovitz:

Kay Koplovitz is an extraordinary business leader having founded USA Networks and Springboard Enterprises. USA would eventually become the number one ranking cable network in primetime viewership for 13 consecutive years and made Koplovitz the first woman ever to head a television network. Springboard is a non-profit organization fostering venture capital investments in women-led high growth companies and raised over $10.3 billion and created over 10,000 jobs since its inception.

The Economy & The Coronavirus with Mohamed El-Erian and Alan Patricof

The Common Good was proud to present a timely and important conference call conversation on the the economy and the coronavirus with Mohamed El-Erian, one of the world's most influential economic thinkers and Chief Economic Advisor to Allianz SE, the parent of PIMCO, and legendary venture capitalist investor Alan Patricof. El-Erian and Patricof discussed a range of relevant economic issues including the possibility of recession in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the impact of the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package, investing in the current economic climate,  and the effect of the coronavirus on small businesses, banks and the global landscape. 

Check out the video below:

ABOUT MOHAMED EL-ERIAN

Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian has worked on economic and financial issues in both the public and private sectors. He is the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer (2007-14) and is a Professor of Practice at the Wharton School. He also serves as senior advisor to Gramercy, a columnist for Bloomberg View, a contributing editor at the Financial Times, and a member of the boards of Barclays and UnderArmour, as well as several non-profits. Elected in May 2019, he is scheduled to succeed Lord Eatwell as President of Queens’ College Cambridge in October 2020.

From December 2012 to January 2017, Dr. El-Erian chaired President Obama’s Global Development Council. He was named to Foreign Policy’s list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” for four years in a row.

ABOUT ALAN PATRICOF

A longtime innovator and advocate for venture capital, Alan Patricof entered the industry in its formative days with the creation of Patricof & Co. Ventures Inc., a predecessor to Apax Partners – today, one of the world’s leading private equity firms with $50 billion under management. 

He stepped back from the daily administration and operational aspects of Apax Partners, LP in 2004 to concentrate on a group of small venture deals on its behalf. In 2006, he founded Greycroft Partners, a venture capital firm, to invest in leading early and expansion stage investments in digital media. With offices in New York and Los Angeles, Greycroft is currently investing from its fifth Fund as well as its second Growth Fund and has $2B+ under management.

A true pioneer and legend in the venture capital world, Alan has helped build and foster the growth of numerous major companies such as America Online, Apple computer, Office Depot, Audible and many others.

Economic Perils, Reeling Markets, Fed Action, Tariff Wars

The Common Good was proud to present a very important discussion with Byron Wien and Joseph Zidle of Blackstone’s Private Wealth Solutions. Two of Wall Street’s most respected investment advisors will sketch out the economic outlook for 2019 and projections regarding the volatile stock market amid rising risks stemming from tariffs, politics, Fed rates, and global turmoil. If you are concerned about your 401K, real estate or investment portfolio, or your business growth, listen up. They have some very strong and surprising predictions.

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Byron Wien is Vice Chairman of Private Wealth Solutions where he acts as a senior adviser to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, social and political trends to assess the direction of financial markets and thus help guide investment and strategic decisions. Wien is a distinguished advisor on investment decisions - named one of the most influential people on Wall Street by New York magazine, ranked the No. 1 strategist by SmartMoney.com, recognized on Smart Money Power 30 list of Wall Street’s most influential thinkers, and named by First Call as the most widely read analyst on Wall Street, Wien was Chief Investment Strategist for Pequot Capital and before that served for 21 years as Chief (later Senior) U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. In 1995, Wien co-authored a book with George Soros on the legendary investor’s life and philosophy, Soros on Soros — Staying Ahead of the Curve. The New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) presented Wien with a lifetime achievement award in 2008. Wien received an AB with honors from Harvard College and an MBA with distinction from Harvard Business School

Joseph Zidle is a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist in the Private Wealth Solutions group. Previously, he worked at Richard Bernstein Advisors, an independent investment advisor, where he was responsible for portfolio strategy, asset allocation, investment management and marketing to major wirehouses and independent RIAs. Zidle previously spent nearly a decade at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, most recently serving as head of Investment Strategy for Global Wealth Management and Deputy Director of the Research Investment Committee, where he was responsible for creating and communicating global investment strategies to the firm’s private client division across all major investment disciplines. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and History from Emory University. From 1993-2001, he served as a specialist in military intelligence for the U.S. Army Reserves.

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