Rachel Bitecofer
Rachel Bitecofer is an ace election forecaster and the founder of The Cycle a digital platform for news and politics. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. Her research has been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, NPR, and other major media outlets.
Bitecofer was nationally recognized for predicting the results of the 2018 United States midterm elections more closely than most other forecasters. She first predicted that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives in September 2018, revising her forecast to 45 seats in November, just days before the election even as others were revising their estimates downwards. Democrats ultimately gained 41 seats in the House election, making her prediction one of the most accurate of that cycle. However, there were some errors in her Senate election forecast, where she incorrectly predicted that Democrat Bill Nelson would win reelection in Florida.
Dubbed the Election Whisperer, Bitecofer’s expertise in analysis and prediction has everyone coming to her for the inside scoop on what to expect before the election. Check out her interview on Real Time with Bill Maher where they discuss how she is able to make such accurate predictions and doing so in a hyper-polarized climate.
Bitecofer is also an author of The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election. This book explains the 2016 presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves of populist fervor in the electorate, but only the Democrats were able to steer the nomination into the hands of their establishment favorite.
Dr. Bitecofer is famous for her main thesis that modern elections are not decided by the swing vote, but rather negative partisanship, which prioritizes defeating the other side over any specific policy objective. Under her theory, shifts in voter turnout decide everything, and the "swing" mainly comes from whether voters decide to vote at all rather than deciding who to vote for.
Rachel Bitecofer participated in Recap: Final Presidential Debate Panel on October 23, 2020. Bitecofer, Schoen and McFadden help unpacked what happened during the final Presidential debate.
